During the past few days I've received a bunch of questions about the upcoming iPhone.  It's a hot topic on blogs everywhere and I'm going to try not to contribute to the debate - but I'm going to answer the question as to whether or not this phone is going to be a hit.  The confusion lies in the fact that most of the comments on blogs are made by geeks, techies and others who want to delve into the bits-and-bytes of the phone.  In the big scheme of things, though, none of that will matter. 

In short, the geeks don't get it.  The iPhone will be an absolute smash hit despite the lack of several things that geeks and super-power-users (including myself) consider essential.  Those things, however, just don't make a difference to the average user who's already drooling over the images of this uber-phone.  

Now, being a certifiable geek myself about all things wireless as well as all things Mac, you'd think that I would take a very clinical, almost surgical view of the upcoming release as others already have.  One would think that I'd be discussing the relative merits of EDGE vs. HSPDA (two forms of high-speed wireless connection from your phone to the Internet - EDGE being the much slower of the two; similar, if you will, to dial-up vs. DSL) or virtual (i.e., on-screen) vs. QWERTY (real, push-button, click-when-type) keyboards... but I don't and I won't - because it doesn't matter. 

The iPhone will be a certifiable smash hit despite the geeks commentary about it's lack of "3G" (that's third generation wireless technology, after analog and the first wave of digital phones) network compatibility or other geek-like nuances that the vast majority of the population doesn't care about.  Here's why:

1. Geeks are in the minority.  Despite the popularity of blogs and the detailed technical commentary in most of them the vast majority of the population still can't (and doesn't really care to) do anything with their phone other than make a call, receive a call and use a couple of basic functions.  Retrieve mail?  Please.  Download Java applets and run phone-based browsers?  Come on.  The negativity that geeks are heaping on the iPhone doesn't even register on the RIchter scale of public opinion.
2. Apple = cool.  For years Apple was a struggling computer company whose users were, in the minds of non-Mac-users, outcasts, mavericks and fanboys who played with a toy instead of using a computer.  Since the iPod, though, Apple has become the arbiter of all things cool and you'll hardly find anyone under 25 who can demonstrate an iota of passion for a Windows-based PC as any pedestrian Mac user does for their computer.  Why?  It's not the technology, or the platform, or the chip speed - to paraphrase an old political saying, "It's the experience, stupid."  And the Mac experience is simply better, more passion-inspiring and fun to use.  And if you're going to be at your computer all day you might as well be having a better experience.  This will translate across to the iPhone because most cell phones (please, go ahead and use my Motorola RAZR as the prime example) offer a lousy experience.  The menu systems stink, the graphics are awful and they're designed by a bunch of corporate doo-dahs who are trying to be cool... and nobody ever gets to the cool stage by trying.  You get there by creating a killer product that makes everyone fall in love with it, that becomes cool.
3. People are sick of carrying multiple devices.  Just last night we were having dinner at a wonderful Italian restaurant and, at the next table, the two men seated with their respective women had to offload their phones and Blackberries onto the table before being able to sit down.  No doubt they've all got iPods at home, in their cars, for working out, etc., which just adds to the load.  When my woman goes rollerblading she's got a Batman-like utility belt to carry the requisite iPod, cell phone and other accoutrements of the day - don't you think she'd prefer having just one less thing to carry around all the time? 
   
4. It's the future.  If you're in a position of authority, or if you're an "influencer" (someone to whom others look to determine what's current and cool) you'll have an iPhone as soon as one's available.  Like a new pair of designer jeans, the latest band or the hottest restaurant you won't be able to live without it. And once you get it millions of others will want one, too. 
   
5. Carry your computer in your pocket.  No, I don't mean the browser and email - I mean your calendar and address book.  Another device many people carry is a Palm or similar organizer (I have mine up years ago... I have everything - calendar, address book, photos and more - synced to my phone, but I am a total geek).  Having a simple, wireless, automatic, idiot-proof way to get all that stuff onto a single device will not only sell a bzillion iPhones, but will generate a halo effect for new Mac computers the likes of which Apple hasn't seen before.  I'm confident that Apple will build into its next operating system the means to do all of this automatically with an iPhone and advertise the elegant integration of the two.  Watch for it - you read it here first. 
   
6. It's pretty.  Uh-huh, that's right.  It's got a great screen, the design is sweet and it'll look like a slightly overgrown iPod (which is already recognized as being pretty).  People will be happy to carry it along as a fashion accessory - watch the Hollywood celebs and famous-for-being-famous people start ditching their Blackberries, Sidekicks and other clunkers because the iPhone is more fashionable and thinner.  Hey, you want to go out with your high school girlfriend or a runway model? 
   
7. The only thing cooler than Apple these days may be Google - and with the integration of Google Maps and possibly other Google applications (let's see what happens at the Apple World Wide Developers Conference - WWDC - today) some people may want an iPhone because of its (presumably) tight integration with Google.  Get your email pushed to you like a Blackberry, use applications on it like spreadsheets and document editing, complete Google Calendar (along with the Mac's iCal) integration and more make this a portable Google terminal, too. 
   
8. WiFi gives it more "hooks" than the average cell phone.  Imagine the possibilities of being able to use it for Skype-based calls in a hot spot or around the house, or to modify it so that - via WiFi - you can use it as a remote control for everything... TV, computer, whatever.  The phone becomes the single all-purpose device for daily life - making it ever-more indispensible to the user. 
   
9. The software on the iPod is revolutionary.  Some people will buy it for a couple hundred dollars more than a regular iPod just because you can scroll through your library with the flick or a finger.  Others will want it because the album art is sharp and colorful.  There will be applications that will add a scrolling lyric database to the device so that you can read (in large enough type so that you can actually see it) the lyrics for songs as they are playing.  Don't make the mistake of underestimating the gravity of eye candy... once people see how beautiful the iPod portion of the iPhone looks they might buy it just for that and give up their other phone because, well, they don't want to carry two devices. 
   
10. You're underestimating Steve Jobs.  It's a fatal error that bloggers, traditional media journalists and others have been doing for years.  Thinking that this is as good as it gets, that all the rabbits are out of the hat, has surprised more pundits and critics through the years than you can count.  Don't let it happen to you... do you really think that The Master has revealed all the tricks already?  I'll bet - and I am actually betting with my own money through the stock market - that His Most Exhalted Inventiveness (aka Jobs) ain't done yet.  There's at least a trick or two more up his sleeve before - or on - release day (now scheduled for June 29) and the rumors are flying full force.

Being a geek myself I can sympathize - I'd like to see the addition of several features and functions, hardware, etc., to the iPhone, but in the short run it just doesn't matter.  The world is filled with regular consumers, not those driven by geek factors, and when the iPhone is released the best thing you can do is get out of the way so that you don't get trampled by the thundering hordes waiting in line to drop $500+ on the latest, greatest toy. 

In short, the geeks may be right about a lot of shortcomings regarding the iPhone, but in the face of everything else it just won't matter.  

 Just my 2 cents.