There's been a lot of discussion lately about the "wireless Internet" - probably since the introduction of the iPhone - and whether it will ever reach the potential that people in the industry have been predicting it would attain for years.   

As some of the readers of these discussions already know I was the first CEO of the WAP Forum.  Having spent, literally, years of my life listening to, talking about, watching focus groups discuss and being interviewed about the "wireless Internet" I believe that I've heard enough to make a prediction or two about whether, when and how users will ever actually, well, become users.  

Here are the obstacles as I see them (in the order which require improvement prior to more universal adoption):

1. Site design and usability: This is, unquestionably in my mind, the #1 bugaboo preventing adoption.  I have watched people who are relatively proficient at using technology throw up their hands in frustration (literally) when trying to use sites that are supposedly designed for mobile devices.  

Until sites are clear, uncluttered and designed for the limited navigation (as well as limited screen size) available on most devices (excluding "real" browsers such as Safari on the iPhone) people simply will not use them.  

2. Speed: Once sites are usable from the design and usability standpoint the next issue that percolates to the surface is, "Why isn't it faster?"  The number one complaint about WAP sites when I was globe-trotting to promote the standard was the speed.  This was, of course, wholly unrelated to the standard as it was directly a result of the network speed, but the _perception_ to the user is that the site, not the network, is slow.  

Even today, using an EDGE network (what appears on most AT&T phones) on an iPhone as the lowest common denominator (which, arguably, would offer the best browsing experience to a novice mobile Internet user) site loading can be frustratingly slow.  The reaction of people to a demonstration of the browser on the iPhone is so dramatically different when accessing it via WiFi as compared to the EDGE network that you would be convinced - as I am - that without the speed which we are all becoming accustomed to at our offices and homes, accessing the web via a mobile device is an exercise in futility.  

3. Cost: AT&T revolutionized the cellular business in the late 90s and early 00s by removing the cost factor when roaming and making long distance calls.  Those who have been in the industry long enough (or perhaps even those who simply remember the "One Rate" plan) will agree that the elimination of the fear of large bills injected the industry with a shot of adrenaline not seen since its inception.  Everyone else was forced to follow suit and ultimately long distance and roaming charges on wireless devices disappeared.  

When was the last time that anyone you know even had a second thought about making a long distance call or using their phone in a city other than that which they purchased their phone?  Does anyone even know what "roaming" means anymore?  Until flat rate services - like what AT&T offers on the iPhone - are consistently available to people at a reasonable charge (like the $20 that covers all the email you can eat, browsing, etc., on the iPhone) it's just not going to happen.  

In short, for wireless Internet use to really proliferate, here's what needs to happen:

1. Make sites easy to use.
2. Speed up the networks.
3. Make the cost predictable.

Without those three improvements I can predict with painful certainty from my experience that the number of users who will regularly access the web - even those sites that are supposedly designed for wireless devices - will remain stagnant or increase at speeds so slow it would make the EDGE network look as speedy as your cable modem.  

Of course, it's just my 2 cents, but in this case I've actually been out there researching it, doing it and watching it for years.