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Thursday
Oct082009

• Wireless Penetration Rates Are Yesterday’s News – It’s Saturation Rates Now

There aren’t a whole lot of people you’ll meet who are more tech-centric than I am.  I can barely write with a pencil anymore and think better at a keyboard than a blank sheet of paper.  But there’s something about the morning newspaper (my choice is the Wall Street Journal) that still appeals to me.  Maybe it’s that tactile sensation of folding the paper, the audible crinkling when I fold it over into neat quarters to read while holding one handed (a technique I learned while commuting via subway in New York) or something less esoteric… no batteries to deplete, screens to worry about cracking – whatever.  It’s a newspaper, not a news screen, I figured. 

And then my wife’s birthday – which seems to come about once every three months – elicited the usual “what now” response most men have when considering gifts.  Jewelry, the default safe haven for men, wasn’t an option for this birthday (don’t ask) so it was incumbent upon me to be <gasp> creative.  So, in an effort to assuage my own conscience and simultaneously encourage my wife’s reading habit, I succumbed to the siren song of electronics and bought a Kindle, that e-book reader that’s all the rage amongst the first-class-seats-set. 

This turned out to be an enormous mistake – and not because she doesn’t like her Kindle.  The problem is that now I want one, too.  The convenience, ease of use and instant gratification is stunning.  By way of demonstrating to my wife how easy it was to shop for books in the Amazon Kindle store (what was I thinking?) we bought the hot bestseller by Dan Brown, “The Lost Symbol,” a follow-up to his colossal global hit, “The DaVinci Code.” 

We cruised through the Amazon store on the Kindle in nothing flat, which was no surprise to me after being an Amazon customer for years – they’ve got web design down pat – but after clicking the “Buy” button the entire book was downloaded in under 60 seconds.  All 700+ pages.  In 60 seconds.  Right there, on the Kindle, complete with notes, definitions of esoteric words and much more in 60 seconds. 

Did I mention that all of this landed on the Kindle in 60 seconds? 

So she’s hooked and now so am I.  We’ve been out of town for a while and rather than having to either search for that day’s newspaper in the hotel or read it on my laptop I’ve been reading the Journal on her Kindle.  And it’s great – downloaded automatically, in the background, every night.  No muss, no fuss, no messy cleanup.  Insanely convenient. 

The question arises, then, as to what this means for the wireless industry.  Amazon’s “Whispernet” service, which is basically a fancy name for the data transmission capabilities of Sprint’s network, forms the foundation for the Kindle’s magic.  It’s built-in, transparent and completely user-friendly.  No additional data charges, no cellular subscription needed, no confusing sign-up procedures.  In short, it’s the way that embedded wireless devices should work. 

If this is an indication of what’s to come in embedded capabilities you can kiss the old “penetration rate” calculations so important in the early years of cellular goodbye.  We’re already at an effective 100% cellular phone penetration rate in the U.S.  Really, if you eliminate people younger than eight years old and older than ninety, do you know anyone who wants a cell phone that doesn’t already have one?  Now we’re at the point where everyone will have multiple devices with wireless capabilities – whether it’s the navigation device in your vehicle, networked appliance in the kitchen or the Kindle in your briefcase. 

Penetration is out.  Saturation is in.  We’ve gone from asking “How many people will have a wireless device?” to “How many wireless devices will people have?”  Take a look around – the iPod Touch, your laptop, the portable Garmin you carry, your cell phone (or maybe more than one) – and you’ll find that you’re already into saturation instead of penetration.  The question people will ask is, “When does it end?”  The simplest answer is, not for a long, long time. 

Reader Comments (6)

I am now very tempted to Kindle my life. I have forced myself to simplify rather than add to my life. More options gadgets and opportunities to waste time by getting tidbits emails, twitters, blogs, I-phone apps and I-pod entertainment, on top of my internet habit and plasma screen habit. Did I mention "tivo". Should I continue with the fluff. But than you have introduced me to this "Kindle". For now I will refrain....but for how long, only time will tell.

October 11, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterGoldie

Scott:

Correct on penetraion vs saturation. Measurement will be difficult as the wireless capability is a core part of value add of new devices.

I am reluctant to get my paper on a Kindle, but I know within a few years I will have no choice. What will I cover the floor with when I paint?

October 12, 2009 | Unregistered CommenterAndy

@Goldie: Do it. You won't be sorry. The price on the Kindle was just reduced by $50 so you can look at it as getting five free books. My wife has found that the Kindle has actually simplified her life. Rather than hunting around for her book, the daily newspaper and other stuff that she carries with her on a regular basis she can toss the Kindle into her (somewhat oversized) purse and have it all in one device.

October 12, 2009 | Registered CommenterThe Wireless Wizard

@Andy: Covering the floor, or the birdcage, or lining the trash bin is about all I can think of to use the newspaper for these days anyway. Most of the writing - especially in the L.A. paper - is horrible and so I'm a confirmed WSJ reader, along with a bunch of columns, blogs and RealClearPolitics (a great aggregation web site that provides links to opinion pieces about the day's events with no favoritism towards either the left or the right).

Kidding aside, I do think you'll have a choice for a long time to come, but the variety will dwindle. You might be able to get the WSJ, NY Times, Washington Post and some other major papers five years from now but between the inexorable march towards web-based content and the downward slide of newspaper's revenue it's unlikely that the smaller papers will be around much longer.

October 12, 2009 | Registered CommenterThe Wireless Wizard

Is there a way to retreat text messages off of past cell phone records. By retreat I mean the content of the text messages given they are by now long gone from the phone itself. Thank you.

October 19, 2009 | Unregistered Commenterquestionables

I presume you mean "retrieve" messages that have been deleted. Unfortunately, unless you have been intentionally using a program on your computer that backs up text messages (they exist for both PC and Macs) once a message has been deleted, it's gone without any chance of recovery.

In rare situations - and with the appropriate legal subpoenas - you might be able to get the information from the carriers but even that is unlikely seeing as they now process three BILLION text messages every single day.

Sorry - wish I had better news but that's the way it is.

October 19, 2009 | Registered CommenterThe Wireless Wizard

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